- Early voting is up, but new absentee ballot rules are raising questions from Governor Josh Stein.

And Senator Thom Tillis calls for Republican independence from the White House, starting in North Carolina.

This is State Lines.

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(upbeat music) - Welcome to State Lines.

I'm Kelly McCullen, joining me today, the debuting Alexandra Sirota of the North Carolina Budget and Tax Center.

Alexandra, welcome to State Lines.

- Thanks for having me.

- I've interviewed you a time or two, and it's great to have you here on the new show.

- Glad to be here.

- Theresa Kostrzewa is here of Capital Advantage, and to her right, Colin Campbell of WUNC News.

Hello to you.

- Hey, Kelly.

- And a debut on seat four.

Reporter Esther Frances of the News and Observer.

Television debut, you say?

- Yes, sir.

- It's all policy here.

We're gonna be right in your wheelhouse.

You know anything about early voting so far?

- I sure do.

- Well, that's the setup.

2026 early voting is outpacing the early vote trends of the 2022 midterms.

Over a million North Carolinians have cast ballots early in 2026.

That's more than three percentage points ahead of the 2022 midterms at this point in the voting period.

Democratic voters are 43% of early voters, unaffiliated are 34%, and Republicans 23%.

The trend is showing Democratic and unaffiliated ballot percentages are up in the early vote.

Republican percentages of early vote down from 2022.

Colin, and then Republicans will say, well, Republicans have upticked in recent days to close that gap, you know, from 43% Democratic to maybe 40, or it moves every day.

- Yeah, there's some of that, and of course the caveat is always that you typically see higher Republican turnout on election day.

Republicans like to wait until the day of and do it on election day.

So, you know, you gotta take all these numbers with a grain of salt.

I think it's probably premature to say, oh, this shows that this is gonna be a huge blue wave, but certainly it's a sign of a potential turnout problem for Republicans.

I mean, what I've been hearing from talking to Republican strategists all year long is we're not so much worried that people who normally vote for our party are gonna suddenly jump and vote for Roy Cooper or Democrats, but they might just not show up.

So it's really sort of, do you go out and vote for Michael Watley given that there's not any ad spending behind him anymore?

He's lost a lot of his funding, or do you just stay home and sit this one out?

And that's the big concern for the Republicans at this point.

- Theresa, analyze this midterm.

We've seen a few of these come through.

- Yeah, so the thing that's, I think, another problem that the Republicans have is you have Michael Watley on the ballot who's turned out to be not a great candidate, and Cooper was the Democrats' dream, and so they've given up on Watley.

But then the only other statewide race is a Supreme Court race, right, with Sarah Stevens.

And there's usually very little interest in that, and so there's nothing that's generating buzz.

- And Stevens is being outspent, too, so she's not in very much TV advertising.

- Exactly, and so the whole, you know, who pays for get out the vote type things, that's usually national candidates, the national party, the state party, and so it'll be interesting.

- Esther, let's talk about that early vote.

I mean, you're down at the legislative, but you're down ballot.

If Watley and Cooper is anticlimactic, what's gonna earn some attention other than Democratic enthusiasm and Republicans trying to hold their ground?

- Absolutely, in the state legislature, this short session, we have seen several attempts by Republicans to try and increase Republican voter turnout, specifically these constitutional amendments that are on the ballot this year, which Democratic state lawmakers have criticized as sort of a Republican get out the vote, trying to increase people to those polls.

So the legislative races will definitely be interesting as we continue on with this midterm.

- Alexandra, how do you, from a budget and tax perspective, the makeup of this General Assembly after Election Day could make a huge difference in what deals get cut as we go towards a fresh budget being written next, you know, biannum.

- Right, we're about to enter into that two-year budget cycle, and the decisions that get made are gonna be critical because we are facing what we expect to be a fiscal cliff where current revenues are gonna be tied up with the spending we need in community.

And to Esther's point, I think the amendments, depending on how those go in this election cycle, will put even further limits on the budget conversations going forward.

- Do you think the amendments are driving turnout?

I know in past years on social issues, those amendments were placed on that ballot to generate turnout.

Is that the case this time, or is there enough clout with Cooper Watley and Stephen and Anita Earls that the amendments are just there for an option, but make your mind up.

- I think a lot of people understand that this election is generational defining, that what happens in this election is gonna set the stage for many, many years, not just the sort of cycle of an elected official, but the ability of their children to go through a K-12 education system that's fully funded.

And so I do think that the discussion about the amendments is driving people to show up and turn out.

- Theresa, you made a comment about Michael Watley, in your opinion, not being the strongest GOP candidate out there.

Is there something, was there something wrong about Michael Watley being chosen by Donald Trump to run, or is he a product of the political consultants that were assigned to him?

- Well, I think that President Trump has demonstrated a poor ability to choose Republican candidates.

I mean, quite frankly, Thom Tillis is about the only Republican that would've won this US Senate race.

Michael Watley was definitely not the great choice.

I think the problem the Republicans have looking forward is that politics is like a sports team.

You need a good bench.

And when you look at the Republicans, there's really not very many people on the bench, and that's part of the problem that they had.

- And Watley's done such a poor job of making himself different from the so-called generic Republican, somebody who's just sort of a, you know, someone who's directly aligned with the President and not really distinguishable on their own.

That was obviously his job as Chairman of the Republican National Committee for so long.

And then, of course, the issue set he's been running on have been problematic.

All of his ads, a lot of his rhetoric has been around crime.

That polls very low as a top issue for voters.

Roy Cooper has made it all about affordability, and that happens to be the top issue this year.

- Little wrinkle in early voting.

Josh Stein is out there, North Carolina's governor, urging you to vote in person if you can.

He is citing concerns about absentee ballot rejections.

Governor Stein says the new State Board of Elections rules are contributing to more rejected ballots.

Statistically, he is correct, but the State Board of Elections says the preliminary spoil ballot rate is 3.1% this cycle.

It was 2.6% at this point in 2022.

A federal judge has declined to block these elections rules.

They require you, if you're an absentee voter, sign your name where you're supposed to on the ballot, and there's two envelopes.

Make sure both ballot envelopes are sealed, and Esther, the judge said it's plain as day on the ballot.

You should be able to follow instructions.

That's not a burden.

Why are the Democrats making hay over a 0.5% rejection increase?

- Absolutely.

Even though it is only so few ballots being rejected compared to 2022, it's very interesting to see Governor Josh Stein take to social media to specifically lay out these rules and to even advertise for people to go to vote in person, just to avoid all of this in particular.

And like you mentioned, it's the inner envelope that hasn't been sealed that has been getting rejected.

And the federal judge, too, said it would be infeasible to crack down on that new rule after voting had already started.

So I think the Democrats are worried moving forward with a lot of these ballots being rejected.

But if your ballot has been rejected, you can either submit a new ballot or go to vote in person.

- Alexandra, why should we as North Carolinians assume that that 0.5% increase reflects good ballots that were improperly thrown away?

That's the implication.

Could it be elections officials are finding more spoiled ballots?

- I mean, it's hard to say, but I think the big issue with not counting every eligible voter and making sure that people aren't getting their vote rejected on a technicality is an important thing.

We know that when people cast their ballot, every vote from an eligible voter should be counted.

We also know that the changes in rules in election administration have risen, rose costs have risen as a result, and that all of the implementation is very complicated now.

And so removing some of these barriers to make sure eligible voters can make their voices heard is really critical.

At this point, I think it is right to make sure that everybody is going out to the polls getting their vote counted.

- Theresa, we're back to old school.

Now we have Democrats saying, "Go vote.

"Go vote in person."

- I know, it's cracking me up.

I know.

- Sort this one.

- Well, quite frankly, I'm an Election Day voter, and I'm gonna stay an Election Day voter.

I think if I could, I would do it at the Board of Elections office and say, "Hey, here it is," because there's just so much distrust.

There's distrust in the system.

There's distrust in the people who are trying to police the system.

And so I think it's great.

Long lines on Election Day.

- Colin, is there a growing dissatisfaction or skepticism?

Now even on the left for elections.

I mean, the elections have been run clean pretty much in North Carolina.

There's no issue.

- Yeah, but there's been so much rhetoric around it, particularly at the national level that I think has led to some of this distrust and certainly hearing about the ways that you might screw up a mail-in ballot I think has made some people more reluctant to go that route, and you've seen that in the numbers.

The turnout on mail-in voting is actually lower than it was four years ago, whereas early voting in person is up significantly.

So people are making that different choice to go do it in person.

There's something about putting the ballot physically into that counting machine that makes you really feel like your ballot has actually counted.

- You get the sticker.

Esther?

- Yeah.

I was gonna say that Democrats have also warned that it might not only be the inner envelope of the election, but it is having people's ballots be thrown out.

They've been talking about voter ID as well, new rules implemented there.

So just making sure you're dotting every I and crossing every T.

- President Donald Trump campaigned in Greenville, North Carolina this week for Republican candidates.

He was supporting U.S.

Senate candidate Michael Watley and U.S.

House candidates Lori Buckhout and Jennifer Balcombe, really.

The president said he'd direct the U.S.

Department of Justice to quickly settle the remaining linked to those lawsuits surrounding Camp Lejeune's contaminated water if Republicans win the U.S.

House and Senate majority.

- We're also fighting for our great veterans and taking care of those veterans who brought claims related to water contamination at Camp Lejeune.

It's been a big subject, actually.

So tonight I'm pleased to announce that my administration has delivered $1 billion in cash settlements to these veterans and their families.

(audience cheering) Most of whom are based here.

In addition to $3.3 billion we've provided for the VA in less than two years.

And if we win the House and the Senate, I am directing the Department of Justice to settle all remaining legitimate claims as soon as possible and get it off the books and get it finished.

This has gone on for years.

So if we don't win, there's no money.

If we do win, you're getting it, it's gonna be finally over with that nightmare that's been going on for so many years.

- Colin, we've heard Donald Trump ad lib and he says things and you have to hear what he says to interpret what is he saying.

What did he say there?

Did he say he was gonna withhold Camp Lejeune legal settlements?

Or was he just talking and it would be faster or maybe Democrats wouldn't fund the settlements?

I could not make it out.

- Yeah, I mean it does sound like a threat 'cause you have to remember, regardless of how this election goes, he's still the president for two more years.

So he's gonna be in charge of the Department of Justice and the federal agencies that are administrating these settlement payments.

So ultimately, if he decides not to give them out, that's a decision he's gonna make regardless of the election results.

So it certainly sounds like a threat.

And I think a lot of people have responded negatively to that comment because you're basically telling people who've served in the Marine Corps who've had their water basically poisoned over a number of years and had health troubles that them being compensated for that is contingent on who wins an election.

I mean, it's just not a good look.

- Theresa, $5,000 to voters too.

In another stump speech, if Republicans can keep the House, I think the House triggers that payment.

But this was a statement and we put him there and we didn't edit it, it's pretty much right there.

What did you hear?

- Well, he actually, if you look at other states, he said similar things.

I think in Kansas, he said that if Marshall wins, this is the US Senate race, right?

If Marshall wins, then he's gonna maintain a gas tax repeal for farmers, right?

And quite frankly, I think it's abhorrent.

I think to tell a farmer or someone who has suffered from the water problems they have at Camp Lejeune that your future is dependent upon who gets elected, I don't know how that's not against laws or our Constitution or something.

It's wrong if it's not illegal, it's just wrong.

These are people's lives.

- Alexandra, from a budget perspective, when candidates make promises to do things or to not do things, do you think it would have meaningful effect on federal policy, certain rhetoric like this, pre-election?

- I think it's, again, just wanna emphasize how troubling it is and it's not out of the realm of possibility.

We've seen the way the Helene recovery and funding for that has been held in different ways and not gotten out to communities for the rebuilding.

I think we do see rhetoric translating sometimes into action and that's concerning, particularly when it's in the form of a threat.

What we know is that in this case, the funding going to people who have been impacted is critical to supporting their health costs.

We also know that it will be critical to fix the underlying issues in the water systems.

Again, I think when we are having conversations about an exchange of money for votes and not a conversation about the underlying systemic need to fix the investments in communities, that sends our budget conversations in directions that aren't really about the bigger goals we have as a state.

- Esther, what's the difference, in your opinion, and you're a reporter, so play this as carefully as you want.

Politician runs for president, it's gonna cut my taxes, that's gonna put money in my pocket.

They repeal the gas tax at the legislative level.

Then what is wrong with a president saying, "This is the deal I'll make in exchange "for supporting my party "and keeping legislative majorities"?

- I think what a lot of people have already said, this is people's lives that we're talking about.

This is rebuilding after Hurricane Helene, which the president did threaten while he was here to withhold that funding if Republicans didn't do well, to which he did say, "I'm only kidding," right afterward.

But Democrats are definitely quick to take to social media about that, and I think this same clip as well.

Yes, this is people's livelihoods, this is their work, this is their home, this is extremely important to them, and for the top person in the country to threaten or say these kinds of things, I think it gets people thinking about how they're gonna approach the ballot box.

- I was just gonna add, I think one of the things in the budget context is when promises get made around tax cuts or around a gas tax, really putting money into pockets, the reality of making the policy and designing that policy to actually reach people is also the second step that a lot of times elected leaders are not communicating in the early phase of the election when they're trying to get out the vote, but the act of making the policy ends up not getting people the money into their pockets.

- Retiring US Senator Thom Tillis is out saying that Republicans should show more political independence for the Trump administration if they ever hope to win over more unaffiliated voters.

Tillis told Politico's Jonathan Martin that he may work to rebuild parts of the Republican Party, to position it, in his opinion, for better success in 2018 and beyond, and he says it starts in North Carolina.

- I've invested a lot of equity in the Republican Party here in the state and at the national level, and I'm trying to get as much of that protected moving into a cycle where we've got some rebuilding and I'm gonna help from the outside.

- What does that look like?

- For one thing, it's going through North Carolina and torching every bad leader at the county district level and watch them coming.

They've mismanaged our party here in the state.

They've lost objectivity.

They've targeted moderate Republicans because they weren't conservative enough without having the slightest idea of what that meant for people in at-risk districts, and we've gotta get leaders who actually care more about the party than they do about their feeling like they're a Karl Rove because he had 70 people elect them at a county convention.

- Theresa, I will say, on Twitter and X and all this, there are county level and regional GOP, NCGOP leaders who do not like anything about Thom Tillis, and I guess he knows it.

- Yes, that's true.

- What happens when he comes home?

- Well, that's gonna be -- I think what happens is dependent upon what does Thom Tillis want to do.

Now, first of all, he is having the time of his life since he announced that he's not running for re-election, and you have to believe that there are so many other Republicans in office that are looking at Thom going, "God, I wish I could be like Thom Tillis "and say all these things."

- Do a book tour instead of an election tour right now.

- Oh, yeah, and say what they really feel about something, but what he's speaking to is a big unknown.

I think that the electorate certainly is tired of the way things are going, but how much will the Republican base create a backlash against it, and how much will running in the middle actually bring people in?

It'll be interesting to see what Senator Tillis decides to do.

Doesn't sound like he's gonna go to the beach or anything for an extended period of time.

Sounds like he's gonna be involved.

- Colin, he said that, I tried to get him on this show, he's not gonna be a lobbyist.

He's going back, working at Davidson College or University to work with Poli Sci there.

I mean, a lot you can do as a former senator, but critics have said, where was that bravado and bravery when you thought you would seek re-election?

- Yeah, and certainly he had the option to seek re-election.

He stepped down from that re-election campaign around the same time Trump was threatening to support a primary opponent over his lack of support for the so-called Big Beautiful Bill, so that's the backdrop here.

So it'll be interesting to see how involved he wants to get, particularly at county level Republican politics.

I mean, he has a point there.

A lot of the local Republican Party organizations have kind of become Donald Trump fan clubs over the years, and you've seen people who don't share that view being kind of pushed aside, and I don't know how you move back from that, but I also don't know how, in a state where 40% of people are unaffiliated voters, how important and influential a county or district level Republican or Democratic Party is gonna be going forward.

- Alexandra, you and I were both around in Raleigh when Tillis was the House Speaker and they took over from the Democrats.

Does he have a point that he worked to get that majority, therefore he has a seat at the table whether the modern NCGOP wants him there or not?

- I mean, I think he certainly can attempt to make that known.

He was also the architect of the current tax cuts that we're sort of working through right now in every budget cycle to manage.

I think the interesting thing will be, are the ideas that he wants to bring forward any different than the ideas of the National Party or the State Party?

Is there an interest in reconnecting with people on the ground on the issues that matter most to them, and putting together a policy agenda that actually reflects those priorities?

That's, I think, the biggest question I have.

- Esther, it's all branding.

I mean, now you've got this 'keep it real' Thom Tillis, and you see Pat McCrory, the old ex-North Carolina governor, out there just shooting from the hip, came on this show and fired, I mean, just, it's fun political rhetoric, and it's different, and on the Democratic side, you're seeing the Democrats run like the guy's the farmer and he wears the hat and the jeans.

What is going on?

- Yeah, it's been really interesting to sort of see this media blitz from Thom Tillis with the book, which he has not so very nice names to call a couple people in that book.

- We didn't use the cuts from that interview because it has some foul language in it that we maybe couldn't play on PBS.

- Exactly.

- A little expensive.

(laughing) - Yeah, but that seems to be Tillis' branding now, and I find it interesting that Democrats have also come back to say, "Well, what about these cabinet picks "that you had approved?"

Even though he does call many of the cabinet picks idiots in this book.

Yeah, it's just been a very interesting sort of seesaw of we're seeing a lot of Republican media blitz, particularly from Tillis, now who's able to speak sort of out against Trump and others.

- And you've got that session under your belt in Raleigh.

Would you be surprised to see Thom Tillis show up in Raleigh at the General Assembly during the long session?

- Honestly, I would not.

Considering it's pretty lame duck in there, I think that he would not be shy to come around and say hey.

- I've seen him in the building a few times since he's left the speakership, and it's been a while now.

- All right, well, let's go to State Superintendent Moe Green and the chair and the vice chair of the State Board of Education.

They are out this week opposing two tax-related constitutional amendments that you'll find on the November ballot.

The first amendment would lower the constitutional cap on income tax rates at no higher than 3.5%.

The other amendment option would require the General Assembly to limit increases in local property tax levies by a still undefined amount.

Superintendent Green, the board chair Eric Davis, the vice chair Alan Duncan says, these amendments could further restrict state and local officials' ability to fund public education.

The full state board, however, did not vote on their statement as some sort of official doctrine or policy, Alexander.

Well, voting's underway and they come out now.

Couldn't they have said this before early voting?

- It would have been nice because I think that data has been clear for a long time that the tax cuts that are gonna get locked in under these amendments into the Constitution more permanently have meant fewer dollars for kids' education.

We've seen that happen.

We've seen the shift when state income tax cuts have gone forward, the requirement placed on local governments to pick up more teaching positions.

6,000 teaching positions are now funded locally.

So the idea of restricting both of these revenue options is really problematic for our public schools, but it's also problematic for most public services in our communities.

And so it is important that people are getting out now the information about the impact because the language of the ballot itself is unfortunately pretty vague.

- Theresa, the language on the ballot has about 67 to over 70% approval for each of those options.

So the voters think they understand the policy.

- Yes, and they do.

And what they're seeing is, oh, I'll have to pay less.

I mean, and we talked earlier about how much will this drive Republican turnout.

Quite frankly, as we've seen by almost 70% support, when you're talking about tax issues and more money to keep in your pocket, it's really not a partisan issue.

It's not like a social issue that's gonna really drive people to the polls.

So it's very easy for a voter to go, hey, yeah, cap that tax, that's gonna be great.

Are there potential consequences down the road if we have some kind of emergency for whatever reason in life that occurs and you have to change the Constitution in order to run your state government?

I mean, I really hope and pray that that never happens, but anything's possible now with what's going on in the world.

- Esther, from your experience, how much stroke does the State Board of Education and the superintendent have with legislators in Raleigh when they are in Raleigh doing their legislating?

- Definitely.

I think when those lawmakers get together, I think it's really hard for anyone to sort of penetrate that circle and to try to make their needs known.

And I think it was also very interesting how Republican lawmakers, when they were setting up these tax amendments, they also very much toned down what kind of effects they could have besides the fact that you keep that money in your pocket.

So I think it'll be maybe a little bit hard to pick their ear about that.

- Colin, last word to you.

Critics will say about these amendments that puts the pressure on the schools and on local governments to spend the money they have better rather than give them the blank check to raise taxes and keep wasting money.

That's the critics' view.

- Yeah, but the other side of that is there's other ways to raise revenue.

If you don't raise property taxes, maybe you raise sales taxes, which tend to be more regressive.

And the same is true at the state level with the property tax and income taxes.

- And that's the show.

Thank you for being on, Alexandra.

Thank you, Esther, for your two debuts.

Fantastic.

Theresa, always great to see you.

And Colin, thank you as well.

More importantly, we like that you watch State Lines.

So we've talked about a host of issues, very important issues.

So if you have thoughts on them, email them to me.

The email address is statelines@pbsnc.org.

We'll read.

If you wanna share your analysis, I'll share it with the crowd.

I'm Kelly McCullin.

Thank you for watching.

I'll see you next time.

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