- [Kelly] Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson sues CNN for $50 million.

The presidential campaigns return to North Carolina as we analyze new polling data from the Carolina Journal.

This is "State Lines."

- [Narrator] Quality public television is made possible through the financial contributions of viewers like you who invite you to join them in supporting PBS NC.

[courageous music] ♪ - Welcome to "State Lines."

I'm Kelly McCullen.

Joining me today, good friends and even better analyst, public relations consultant, Pat Ryan, representative Brandon Lofton of Mecklenburg County made the long drive to the triangle to be in studio.

Thank you, sir.

Skye David of New Frame Inc is here debuting on "State Lines."

Welcome to our luxurious set and the accommodations.

- Thank you, glad to be here.

- Good to have you here.

A great week, great topics.

We'll start with Pat because I wanna focus on the Carolina Journal releasing its new statewide poll of 600 likely voters.

They made the calls between October 12th and October 14th.

This poll for this week carries a 4% margin of error.

Those are the ground rules.

Let's look at the race at the top of the ticket.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are still essentially tied.

Those are rounded off numbers.

It's a half a percentage point separating Trump from Harris, 47 to 46%.

And then the other high profile race, maybe even higher profile than Trump, Harris, Pat, Josh Stein, 49.3%, 35.8% for Mr. Robinson.

Robinson has lost three point a half percentage points while Stein has gained a similar percentage since September's poll.

Let's hold it right there.

That big story got all CNN's attention, dominated politics, put North Carolina on the map, made Saturday Night Live.

It cost him three and a half points, not 30 points, not, you know, so what do you make of that?

- Yeah, look, so North Carolina is defined as a purple state, but that doesn't mean that there's a whole bunch of just moderate voters here who flip sides.

There's a very strong contingent of people who vote Republican no matter what, every election, same thing.

People who vote Democrat no matter what, every election.

And there's a tiny group in the middle that at the margin decides who's going to win.

So, you know, I think that poll might suggest to you that there are 35% of people who will vote for Mark Robinson and Donald Trump and other Republicans, no matter what they hear or read in the newspaper.

- Representative Lofton what do you make of the, what do you make of this?

The Trump Harris race stays within one point.

It seems to have always been one point and then all the movement, but only three and a half points between Stein and Robinson, pushing Stein towards 50% approval though.

- Yeah, I think it's not a surprise that it's close.

I mean, we expect that.

We've seen statewide races the last few years.

They've all been within a few percentage points.

Most famously, of course, Chief Justice Beasley lost her race by 401 votes.

So I think the bottom line is that Josh Stein has a record and a temperament that resonates well with North Carolinians, I think.

But I think it's gonna be close.

- What is it about Stein that would appeal to Republicans from your Democratic perspective?

- Well, I can tell you from my perspective, representing the kind of district that I do, a district that traditionally has been held by Republican representative, I'm the first Democrat to hold that position in that district.

People want people who are serious about solving problems in our state and forward-looking and thoughtful leaders.

And I think that's exactly who Josh Stein is.

- Skye, Mark Robinson has not given up.

He doubled down, he hit the campaign trail.

Not much money left, not much staff left.

But he's prevalent with photography and tweets and giving speeches, among other things we'll talk about later in the show, particularly that lawsuit.

What do you make of this race?

It's what, 14, 15 points out.

People say it's gonna tighten.

What do you think?

- I think it is going to tighten.

Like Pat said, we're a purple state, it's always been close in the governor's race, it's gonna be close again this year.

What I was really interested in, that that poll was looking at whether or not he was gonna drag down other Republicans, and it seems like he's not going to do that.

And I think that's pretty surprising.

- Yeah, I think there'll be some, if a bunch of Republican Council of State candidates lose by a handful of 1% or 2%, whether it's fair or not, or accurate or not, I think that that narrative will present itself at that point.

It'll be, "Well, why did they lose?

"Well, they lost because of Mark."

It may be true, it may not be true, but that's likely to be the narrative the next day if that's what ends up happening.

- Representative, let's look down ballot from that point to voters not punishing other Republicans, in this case, if they're going to punish Mark Robinson or benefit Josh Stein.

What does that say about the voter in North Carolina circa 2024?

Or is this possibly a positive effect of having media 24/7 and social media that voters are better informed and are not gonna be so easily, I won't say tricked, but persuaded to punish innocent parties?

- Well, I think it just depends, I think we still don't know if that's gonna have a drag on the downward races.

I do think that you see some candidates working to distance themselves from Mark Robinson for that point.

I think Donald Trump, in his campaign, they recognize that he's a potential drag on the down ballot races as well.

So I think we just don't know yet if that's going to have that impact.

But the bottom line is, Mark Robinson is not the only extreme candidate that's on the ballot right now.

And I think that voters, at least in districts that I represent, districts like the ones I represent, are put off by that kind of leadership.

- Sky, what does it do to the electorate when you have Democrats, Republicans, I mean, they hunker down when their candidate finds themselves in controversy, real or perceived, what do you make of all that?

Because it did, it only moved 3.5%, and I bet North Carolina got $1 billion worth of free media just off of what supposedly was posted on the internet.

- Yeah, I think that we're in a hyperpartisan time, and people are gonna stick with their team at the end of the day.

They're gonna come home to their team, they're gonna vote or maybe just skip that race, and then vote rest Republicans.

But I think it is interesting because I think the average North Carolinian probably did not read that story.

They may have seen a headline, but they probably didn't read it.

- Yeah, can I add one thing?

I think it's important [laughing] to keep in mind that Mark Robinson has, voters have already been pretty well informed on just how extreme Mark Robinson is before the scandal broke.

There have been ads, radio, TV, digital, with his words and the positions he's taken.

So voters already knew who Mark Robinson was.

So Josh Stein was ahead in the polls before this story broke.

This just essentially affirms what, or what people know about Rock Robinson if you're not inclined to vote for Mark Robinson.

- Yeah, I mean, Stein was up, I think he was the first candidate up on TV with ads in North Carolina.

It's been months.

And yeah, the strategy has been replaying Mark Robinson's, you might call them greatest hits or most controversial things that he's said.

And yeah, look at the polls, it's clearly been, I think, an effective strategy.

But I think part of this is also sort of part and parcel with, I think Gallup came out with a poll this week, they do it every year about declining trust in all institutions, media, any part of American life that maybe back in the '70s or '80s when people were ticket splitting and they were not so entrenched in their tribes, that's not really the case anymore.

And so I think part of it, you have to look at this in the context of people don't really believe what they read, a lot of people don't believe what they read in the paper anymore, and they don't believe what they're told from X, Y or Z previously trusted institution.

And so that also I think creates a, "I'm in my group here, and I don't care what."

- You say, "I'm going to be voting "for that person no matter what "because I just don't trust anybody else."

- You think politicians are more trusted than the media now?

Your average beat reporter is now less trustworthy than the politician who blames the news reporter for reporting, sometimes, even the facts.

- So the Gallup poll had media and that's not, I think there's a separation between state and local media and just national media at large, but the general category of media was at the bottom of the list with 31% of people trusting a lot or a fair amount and that was below Congress, which I think was at something like 34%, 35%.

That was surprising.

I was surprised by that.

- Let's look down ballot just a bit more.

Democrat, Rachel Hunt, this is the Lieutenant Governor's race.

It's a close race.

Rachel Hunt is leading Republican Hal Weatherman, 43% to 41%, practically.

Hal Weatherman's been in every state in this county.

Rachel Hunt is former Governor Jim Hunt's daughter.

So name recognition versus hustle in the streets, right?

Their representative, Jeff Jackson leads Dan Bishop, 46% to 43%, that is within the margin of error.

And let's look at the Superintendent's race.

Mo Green leads Michelle Morrow by two and a half points for state Superintendent.

So voters are dialing in, Representative Lofton, and it's close no matter what you want to say about how you describe a particular candidate, we don't know who's in the lead in some of these tight races.

- That's right and I think it goes back to what we've been talking about, which is that North Carolina, it's a purple state.

It's always going to be close.

I think we have, and just fact check me on this if I'm wrong, but I think unaffiliated voters, it's essentially a third, a third, a third between Democrats and Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

I think that tells us everything we need to know about the kind of context we're running in statewide.

- Sky, had the down ballot races faded away with Vance and Trump and Walls and Harris here so much in North Carolina and then the Robinson Stein campaigns, there was some concern that voters might not look that far down ballot and then there was not a worry because these are all high profile races.

How is this playing out?

- I think it's a presidential year, so that is going to really determine who people are voting for at the local level.

However, we know that a lot of money came in this week to Democratic races and so if those candidates are be gonna be able to get on TV, that'll make a big difference in the coming days.

- All right, Hal, you're been, Hal, Pat, you're not running for office.

Pat, Hal Weatherman down two points working the street.

What do you make of these rates?

Two points there.

Jeff Jackson up three on Bishop, Mo Green by two and a half over Morrow in this poll.

Which one surprises you?

- I think all of these are true coin flips.

I looked back at the October, 2020 poll from Carolina Journal and Signal and as I recall, Cooper was up 10 in that poll, ended up winning by four and a half.

Robinson was down three in that poll, ended up winning by three.

Newbie was down nine and ended up winning by, of course, I think 401 votes.

That's not to say that Carolina Journal's polling is wrong or he shouldn't discount this or that number.

It's just to say, polling is by nature a sort of in the ballpark number and there's still two and a half weeks left and anybody who sits here and says that, you know, Jackson is really ahead or, you know, Weatherman is really behind.

All these races are just, to me, complete coin flips.

- Admittedly, this is fun.

Now let's look at some other races before we move on to other topics.

Elaine Marshall's holding a slight lead over Chad Brown in that Secretary of State race, 45% to 43%.

Brad Brian's leading Wesley Harris for Treasurer, that's another Republican in the lead, Sky, and for agriculture Commissioner, Steve Troxler is always been a popular candidate, Republican leads Sarah Taber by over six points and in many ways representative, he may be the most popular vote in North Carolina short of Elaine Marshall.

Roy Cooper's off the ballot, so we can't put him in that vote too.

Why do some candidates transcend partisanship?

- I think sometimes it's the nature of the office and the office you're serving in and sometimes a candidate, if you've been there a while, if you have an established brand.

But I think, look, that race is very competitive.

I think the candidate working very, very hard, and I think like all these races, you'll just have to wait see how it turns out.

- Skye, I've interviewed almost every council state member, Mr. Robinson never took up our invitation for an interview.

But I'll tell you, I think they all are working hard.

It does seem they all mean very well and they all make the trips and do the miles.

So what do you think candidates, what do you make of these candidates that pick long-term incumbents to go after, knowing the past performance has just been terrific.

Whether it's Elaine Marshall as a Democrat, or Steve Ross as a Republican, even Roy Cooper back when he was running?

- I think anybody who decides to throw their name in the ring should be commended, because it is tough.

Particularly running a statewide campaign against a long-serving incumbent is gonna be really, really tough.

But I think particularly with Sarah Tabor, she's been doing a great job getting her name out, and name ideas a little bit higher than I would've expected for her.

I think that those candidates are doing a fairly great job.

- Right, and throw the graphic up for Mike Causey, this insurance commissioner race, Pat, I wanna touch on this 'cause insurance is a big deal right now, and they're not talking about it.

It's a big public hearing underway about a possible 100% insurance hike in the coast and 42% statewide-- - Yeah.

- But you saw there, Mike Causey leads Natasha Marcus.

So once again, is it just coin flip stuff at this point, or are people looking at how he's handling this hearing and it may influence early voting up to election day?

- To me, it's just noise in the polls.

Some people are up two points, some are down two points.

I have a hard time believing, I could be wrong, I have a hard time believing that with so many races, and there's 10 just statewide Council of State races, that people are really identifying the insurance commissioner's role in having public hearings about rate hikes that might come about next year.

It just, it's so complicated.

I just have a hard time believing that's that's what's causing that.

- But undecideds are dropping.

We're no longer, I don't see, if it's 45/43, it means 88% are on board with a candidate.

We don't have this 25 and 30% undecideds right now.

- That's true, yeah.

In the last days of a campaign, people come home.

You may have Republicans who are a little uncertain, but at the end of the day, they usually come back to their party.

- Alright, Skye, you get to kickoff this, when Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson's filed that $50 million defamation suit against CNN, as well as the store clerk who released a song about Mr. Robinson back in September.

We're gonna focus on the CNN part of this.

Mr. Robinson's attorney says Robinson's personal information that includes email addresses, logins, passwords, that were used on a porn site, were also available on the dark web way before, from breaches and leaks and such.

Attorney Jesse Binnal says anyone could have purchased that data, Skye, to create fake accounts in Mark Robinson's name.

Robinson Camp claims both defamation and that this is a case of election interference by CNN.

Here, check this out from Jayden Banks.

- Today, we are taking the first step to do exactly what I said I was going to do after these [indistinct] attacks were launched against myself and my family.

We are holding CNN accountable.

- We expect to find that there are more bad actors that have been involved in this process to interfere with the election.

And there is more to come.

And let me say this, there have been those that have tried to interfere with our investigation by stonewalling.

And to them, I will say that we will use every tool at our disposal now that a lawsuit has been filed, including the subpoena power, in order to continue pursuing the facts, and you will not be able to hide behind stonewalling.

We will get to the truth.

- Skye, Republican leader, Tom Tillis, said Mr. Robinson needs to sue, try to clear his name or get out of the race, put up or shut up.

So Robinson's put up with a well-known attorney.

- Yeah, this is an interesting strategy from a couple different perspectives.

One is that the story kind of faded when the hurricane hit Western North Carolina, and I thought the Lieutenant Governor did a fairly good job of being out in Western North Carolina, being there helping folks.

So to bring this story back up kind of feels like he picked at the scab again to me.

But I did read the defamation lawsuit and there are a lot of interesting claims in that lawsuit, however, unlikely to win.

- Was it good reading that it was a big, thick lawsuit?

Lots of allegations in it.

Is there a case, I guess you're an attorney.

Is there a case here or is it worth a shot to explore the truth of how CNN obtained information and disseminated it?

True or false with the information?

- I mean, sure, you can explore the truth.

CNN went to painstakingly far ways to try to figure out and show the reader how they figured out that this was indeed Mark Robinson.

So I think it's interesting that they're saying this was off the dark web, or somebody made this up to try to put him in a position because this was so long ago.

He was not a public figure.

Why would somebody have been doing that decades ago?

- Yeah, there wasn't, you know, look, I'm a Republican, you know, I might catch some flak for this, but I think the general sentiment among some circles is great.

He put up, because he had to, you know, it's been three or four weeks now, but he did file a lawsuit.

But in terms of like legal, the typical evidence you would see in a defamation lawsuit that would indicate why you believe or why you're arguing this was totally false and untrue, that sort of detail wasn't there.

At least that's my understanding.

- That's correct.

It's a total slap suit.

And so that is a lawsuit that's brought against someone to shut them up.

And it's not because you think you're going to win.

That's because you want the media outlet or a person to stop talking about you because they're gonna have to pay for legal fees, an attorney to try to stop this lawsuit.

And it's easier for them to just settle.

It's easier for CNN to just settle and be done with this versus fighting it out over years in court.

- Representative Lofton, we know you're on the pro [indistinct], we've analyzed that earlier.

So set this aside and say, candidates who are threatening lawsuits for defamation and for slanders such in the middle of a campaign is, we've seen this a little bit more and more as we go along.

You said something I don't like, we don't know if it's true or not.

We're just gonna sue everybody and try to shut it up.

- So I wanna distinguish between, you know, filing a lawsuit because someone actually is saying things that are false about you or misrepresenting your record.

I think all of us who are candidates have had things said against us that at least approached the line.

And so I think it's perfectly fine to send a lawsuit to say, look, this was over the line.

This is not factually based.

I need you to stop because you're misinforming voters.

This situation, I don't know if Mr. Robinson feels like this falls in that category, then that's fine, but it's not gonna take away from the fact that, as we discussed earlier, voters pretty much already know who Mr. Robinson is and that he's out of step with North Carolina.

- And you have seen, I mean, you've seen, I guess that depends on how you define success, but defamation suits in political campaigns that have resulted in behavior changes or an example of Cooper when he was AG, there was an a settlement and an apology.

Josh Stein was actually, I think, investigated by the Wake County DA and that had to go into federal court and this whole sort of long drawn out controversy.

So there are instances in fairly recent politics in North Carolina of campaigns actually having to take action because they said something that might have been defamatory.

- All right, let's elevate to the top of the ticket where the presidential campaigns returned to North Carolina this week.

Heavy hitters were in our state, former President Bill Clinton and Vice Presidential candidate.

Tim Walz, Fayetteville and Raleigh tour stops.

Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance rallied in Wilmington where he was asked if the Trump ticket still supports Republican gubernatorial nominee, Mark Robinson.

- I think Mark Robinson did a hell of a job with those hurricanes, getting out there and helping people.

I thought that was very admirable, [crowd cheering and clapping] and I really appreciate that.

But look, my view on this issue is that who the North Carolina voters make their next governor is up to the people of North Carolina.

What I'm here to do is to persuade them that they need to make Donald Trump their next president, and I think that's what they're gonna do.

- Well, there you have it.

North Carolina voters should settle their business inside this state, but here comes Arkansas's former Governor and US President Clinton.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is here.

As the Democrat, what does it mean to have Bill Clinton touring with you around Raleigh and Fayetteville?

He was a popular president even among Republicans.

- Yeah, I think it's definitely, look, it signals the importance of North Carolina in this race and what we've been talking about, the theme of the show, that it's just gonna come down to a few percentage points.

So it's kind of a all-hands-on-deck moment.

I can tell you right now from going out and knocking on doors, going at different events, the energy level is very high.

People are fired up.

They're ready to bring about change, and they're ready to vote for Kamala Harris, so we're excited.

- Skye, how delicate is the campaign dance now with Western North Carolina now drying out, but still awfully muddy and dirty and needing to clean up, and you have high profile candidates touring where it wasn't damaged.

Do candidates have to be careful here?

- I think they do because the average North Carolinian that lives out in Western North Carolina, this isn't their top priority, voting in the election.

Sure, maybe they find they want to have their civic duty and go vote, and that's great.

But I don't think somebody whose house and life has been ruined is thinking, "Oh my goodness, I've gotta go get out and vote."

- Pat, Vance is down in Wilmington again.

They like rallying in Wilmington.

What is it down there that makes it such a popular hotbed for Republican presidential candidates?

- Well, yeah, close to the water.

- It's fun.

- Good bars and restaurants.

[laughs] Yeah, Wilmington's great.

Better there than here.

- But having Vance here instead of Trump, is it a different tone when you see them at the rallies there, or is it the same thing to voters, and they're preaching to their perspective choirs?

- I think that Vance is not as much of a draw as Trump, obviously, but I think he has a sort of certain factor to him that draws some of the more loyal Republicans to really want to go out and seek him out and see him as well.

I think he's sort of an underrated draw in that sense.

- Is repeatedly asking JD Vance representative about Mark Robinson, we've heard him answer this question two or three times.

He says it's the state's business.

What is the right answer there?

Reporter tries to pin him down on a state campaign, and he goes, "It's state's business."

Is it worth nationalizing at this point?

- Look, I think it's just, I can't speak for what JD Vance should say in response to that question, but I could tell you what I'm hearing and what I think most North Carolina voters know, which is that Mark Robinson is too extreme for North Carolina and we need Josh Stein as our next governor.

- What do you make of the rallies, doing rhe one-on-one personal touch tour, Skye?

Bill Clinton and Tim Walz walking in McDonald's.

I think that was in North Carolina.

Maybe it wasn't, but they were touring versus the large rally with a lot of energy.

What do you make of those styles of campaigning across our state?

- I think that's smart.

It's clippable.

It's relatable.

You're going to see it on the internet and think, "Oh, I could go get a beer with that guy who went into a McDonald's and worked."

I think it helps with that mix of big rally versus small town touch.

- All right, Pat, FEMA officials are taking things a bit cautiously in Western North Carolina this week.

As reports There are reports that threats are being made against them.

One person was arrested, he was considered a, quote, "lone wolf," if you will, for threatening FEMA staff.

But the rumors out there are more rapid, Pat, FEMA temporarily stopped house-to-house checks earlier this week, but work has resumed.

- Now, over the weekend, out of an abundance of caution, we made operational changes to keep FEMA personnel safe.

But none of the changes we made impacted ongoing search and rescue or other life safety operations.

We started to resume canvassing operations yesterday, and I was in the field with them, going door to door.

And our disaster survivor assistance teams will continue to go door to door in impacting communities.

So let me be clear, we are not going anywhere.

- And Pat, they certainly didn't go anywhere.

This is social media.

I've so appreciated people who have taken their cameras and filmed because it is part of history, but in a deluge of information, there's going to be all sorts of points of view about FEMA response.

And one person, at least, may or may not have thought something about FEMA that caused them to be arrested.

- Yeah.

I think you look at this in the general context of, there was a case to be made that certain rhetoric indirectly inspires probably pretty crazy people to do extreme things.

The last time this argument came up was with the Trump assassination attempt.

I get that argument.

I get why people draw these connections.

I don't really buy it.

I don't think it's reasonable to say that because you were trying to make a point, in maybe a pretty severe way, but still just trying to make a general point about either FEMA recovery or your perspective on former President Trump's policies, that that means you helped inspire some sort of awful event.

I just don't really buy that.

- That's the old video game argument.

Video games cause violence.

Are we back to the speech issue again over just, there are people out there that want to watch the world burn?

- Yeah, I mean, I don't know where to draw the line, but I do think it is important in this emergency response situation to make sure that people have accurate information.

And if you're putting out false information or promoting different pieces of misinformation, conspiracy theories, that could be dangerous, you're talking about emergency response people, life and death situation for people, and we need to make sure we're not doing anything that infringes upon our responders.

- All right, Skye, I got 10 seconds left.

Social media still a safe bastion of information or should we be wary?

Very quickly.

- I'm someone who reads social media every day and still I'm confused.

I don't know what's happening, so I don't know.

- Well, I do know this was a great show.

Pat, Brandon, Skye, thank you so much.

Thank you for watching.

Email me, statelines@pbsnc.org.

I'm Kelly McCullen.

Thanks so much for watching.

See you next time.

[courageous music] - [Announcer] Quality public television is made possible through the financial contributions of viewers like you, who invite you to join them in supporting PBS NC.