- [Kelly] A Democratic representative pushes back on the state Democratic party with a not so veiled warning.

Medicaid enrollment reaches its goal very early, and the State Supreme Court weighs in on whether restaurants can claim damage from COVID.

This is "State Lines".

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[upbeat music] ♪ - Welcome to "State Lines".

I'm Kelly McCullen.

Joining me today, a great panel beginning with Nick Craig of "The Carolina Journal News Hour".

Skye David of New Frame, LLC is here.

Duke University proudly represented by Asher Hildebrand and our good friend, WNC Radio political correspondent, senior producer, Colin Campbell.

Take whichever title you want.

- Yeah, whatever title you wanna give me, it's probably semi accurate.

- Famous radio host.

[Colin laughs] Let's get started where a Democratic state representative has gone public.

He alleges the Democratic caucus, or parts of the Democratic Party, I should say, back off the attacks because he missed a vote on the recent veto override.

It's Representative Cecil Brockman.

He missed last week's House session due to illness.

He says the unified GOP came to work that day, made his override vote statistically moot.

Mr. Brockman says young leadership of the State Democratic Party has been attacking him for years, recruited primary challengers against him.

He told the media, Colin, this resembles how the Democrats treated Tricia Cotham out of Mecklenburg County last session.

And that, quote, "everyone has their limit," when he was asked, "Could you possibly, if not leave the Democratic Party, switch your allegiance in the caucus?"

- Yeah, I mean, that's sort of the big question mark around him.

And it kind of was to some extent right after Tricia Cotham went and became a Republican, sort of the next person people were looking at is, "Oh, Cecil Brockman, is he gonna switch too?"

'Cause he had a lot of the same concerns about how he was treated by his fellow Democrats that she voiced back when she made the switch.

I think the big difference there, Tricia Cotham is in a district where they were able to redraw it to be a little bit more competitive.

It wasn't a deep blue district by the time she ran this past time around, and she was able to win another full term as a Republican having run as a Democrat last time.

Cecil Brockman represents the High Point area.

It's a very blue district.

And the way redistricting is right now, they're probably not gonna redraw legislative districts until after 2030 census.

So, he's gonna be locked in.

If he switched his parties, I think he's probably toast for re-election unless he wants to go do something else professionally.

- Asher, Cecil Brockman says he's a lifelong Democrat.

This isn't about him being a Democrat or Republican.

He says it's about how they're treating him and for his support on bills.

Or he can find consensus with Republicans because in his mind, some of those policies do help Guilford County.

- Well, that's right.

And I think it's important to distinguish between ideological differences and maybe personality or stylistic differences.

Everybody, a lot of talk right now about how the Democratic Party needs to be a big tent.

I think most Democratic leaders believe that, but what we're talking about here really isn't differences over ideology fundamentally.

Representative Brockman's been a thorn in the side of some leaders for some time now, and it's no surprise that now that he has the leverage of being the deciding vote upholding Governor-elect Stein's veto, you know, that he would make this kind of veiled threat.

And I think Democrats need to tread carefully.

But as Colin says, Representative Brockman also is in a district where if he gets too outta step with his party leadership, the voters are simply find another representative.

- Skye, what does it mean if you get outta step with your party's leadership, but yet you're winning in your Guilford County race as a Democrat?

- It's interesting because I don't know if his folks at home are making that differentiation.

If they know, "Hey, he's brought all of these things back to Guilford County, so we're gonna re-elect him."

Or if they just know him and like him.

And if that's true, whatever.

- Whatever has happened, he's doing well there.

- Nick, I don't follow every, you know, every representative's policy platform, but it seems to me, he and his predecessor in that same seat were big school voucher, opportunity scholarship supporters, and that was a real big bone of contention with Democrats.

Is that what this is about?

Or is Cecil Brockman more Republican than Democrat in how he votes?

I'm trying to figure this out.

- No, back to the previous point, I mean, I don't think he's having any major sort of ideological change in regards to this, but this comes down to something that the Democrat Party now in the last two election cycles, in 2022, they said they had held off the supermajority from Republicans, only to have Tricia Cotham then change her party affiliation and gain it back.

The likelihood that he does that, as we've talked about, is probably low.

But he doesn't have to change his party affiliation to be at a doctor's appointment when a veto override is going on, or to just not be there in session when some of that stuff is happening.

So, if I'm the Democrat Party and the Democrat Caucus here in the General Assembly, you've got to tread very, very carefully with this going forward.

- Colin, by the math, if every Republican shows up to vote for a veto override as of 2024, his vote doesn't matter.

And if he's whipped the Republicans, what's the big deal if he didn't show up?

- Well, this was the case for this vote on the Helene power shift bill, where all 72 were in lockstep.

There was some speculation whether Republicans were going to, you know, either sit out the vote or vote against it as they had the first time around.

So that was why there was a lot of focus on, does Brockman show up?

In the new year, Republicans will have 71 votes, so if they can convince Cecil Brockman or one of several other Democrats in the middle to go with them, then that's all they need.

But they can also do that if they get all 71 members show up.

And then a couple of the Democrats to, as Nick mentioned, kind of take a walk, not be there, that will get them a veto override.

So I think there's going to be a lot of intrigue around, when Governor Josh Stein vetoes a bill, how's it going to play out in the State House on the override?

- That's right, it's three-fifths of a majority of those who are present in the chamber.

You have a snap veto override just like that if someone goes to the restroom.

- Yeah, exactly, I think that's what you'll see.

I mean, we've seen that some in the past where there've been sort of surprised they called the vote and a lot of the Democrats were out of the room.

That could easily happen again.

So, as reporters, we're going to have to be super vigilant in the new year in terms of making sure we show up to sessions where maybe we think nothing's going to happen, but there's a veto override kind of looming out there.

It might just show up that day.

- Asher, you called Cecil Brockman, the swing vote in the determination of what's a veto and what will be, what will be sustained and what will be overruled, but every Democrat in that caucus is the swing vote.

It just takes one.

How easy is it for someone to have that pressure applied onto them?

He is now the swing vote.

- Oh, that's right, you have to be willing to use that leverage if you have it, right?

And I think the point Colin makes is important here because this last veto override, right, this was not just any bill, this was one of the most significant bills that this legislature has passed.

You know, your average-of-the-mill legislation that's coming through, it's probably not, he's probably not going to face that much pressure, but on something big like this, it's important to show up and cast your vote.

And that's why people are so frustrated.

- But he is not on an island alone.

There are four or five Democrats that at any time could vote with the Republicans or try to get something for their community in order to vote for something.

- What does it mean to he went public though?

He sent this letter out.

- Yeah, posted it right on X and Facebook.

I mean, I think it shows the true frustration within the Democrat party.

We've seen in past where Governor Roy Cooper has gotten involved in primaries against members of the general assembly.

So this is not necessarily something new that we're seeing a across the state.

And as for somebody like him and for other Democrats that might be willing to work with Republicans, that's a threat they're gonna have to face.

And the question is going to be, does Josh Stein wield some of that same power that Roy Cooper did in the governor's mansion when he takes office here in the next couple of weeks?

- The process I hear from the viewers, people just don't like the process either way, but if it goes your way, it's all good.

Yeah, there's a lot of primary threats across the aisle.

Even with the vote a couple weeks ago, house speaker Tim Moore basically indicated to reporters after the session that there had been talk about the Republicans that were on the fence, that you might face a primary if you don't go with the party on this bill.

So there's a lot of pressure that goes on these people to stay in lockstep with their party on these big votes.

And a lot of them are worried that, you know, if they go out then someone's gonna find a primary challenger and back that person.

They're gonna be out in two years.

- But then are you representing your district if you run on one thing, go to Raleigh, and then do what you're told to do?

'Cause I don't know if I've ever voted for a legislator in my personal life where I wanted them to go and do what Tim Moore told them to do.

- Well, you certainly haven't voted for a legislator who switches parties after they're elected.

- That's [mumbles] true that.

[all laugh] State health officials say Medicaid expansion efforts have reached goals a full one year earlier than predicted.

Over 600,000 people are now signed up for North Carolina's Medicaid program with the federal government covering 90% of that expanded Medicaid coverage.

Roy Cooper had been proposing Medicaid expansion throughout his two terms as the governor.

Republicans passed Medicaid expansion in 2023, following some good lobbying, I would dare say, and the appearance that federal funding of Medicaid expansion was permanent.

But Nick, if federal funding is cut for Medicaid, North Carolina law allows the state to roll back Medicaid expansion.

Victory for who?

The Democrats are saying this is Cooper's legacy, but I know the process and it was Republicans who passed Medicaid expansion and he signed it.

- Well, it's not just Democrats that are saying it's Cooper's legacy.

If you watched his farewell address earlier this week up at Nash County Community College, he essentially talked about that as his legacy as the governor.

And as you just noted there at the end, yes, if the federal government goes back on their 90% that they're funding right now, which I think is a strong possibility.

You look at the incoming administration and some of the pushes to roll back federal and government spending, I think there's a real possibility that that 90% is rolled back and it does give the state the option to change some of this coverage.

But let's look at the practicality of that.

What are you gonna do?

Boot 600,000 people off of a statewide healthcare program?

That's not practical either.

That is political suicide for Republicans if they had to go forward with something like that.

- But Republicans like Medicaid expansion.

And even in very Republican states.

- They never did though.

I mean, they didn't like it until the federal government was willing to put up 90% of the bill.

That's what they advocated for for 10 years prior to that, is that they would not go forward with it until the Biden administration offered 90% coverage from the feds.

That goes away, it puts Republicans in a very precarious situation.

You either roll back the law and kick 600,000 people off of it, or the state now has to pick up the remainder tab.

- It hasn't happened yet, Colin.

But Roy Cooper's legacy, he got Medicaid expansion under his watch and that's what happens.

Governors and the executive branch can seize the success and claim it, right?

- Yeah, and he, you know, used that bully pulpit for years to make that a central issue.

You know, you can argue, ultimately, whose mind changed, what did it, obviously, if Senator Lee or Phil Berger had continued to be vehemently in opposition, as it was initially, it never would've happened.

But certainly Cooper did a good job, I think, of keeping this sort of on the media's radar, sort of in discussion at the legislative building every time he tried to make that a condition for the budget at different points.

So I think he's accurate that that's probably the biggest, you know, accomplishment for Democrats under his watch.

What was interesting too, that he sort of glossed over some of the other challenges in his farewell speech, that he faced during eight years in office, most notably the COVID-19 pandemic.

I mean, he was the leading face of the government's response to that.

Ditto for the various hurricanes that we've had over the years, where his administration has gotten a lot of flack for how they've handled the long-term recovery of that.

I mean, those are all parts of his legacy that impact a lot of people as well and didn't get it discussed quite as much as Medicaid expansion, when he sort of took his victory lap in Nash County this week.

- Asher, I've read several articles about this.

It does seem that North Carolina GOP, and the senate leader, and the house leadership now, incoming, have said very much they've allowed Governor Cooper to have the victory lap, fair call?

- As far as I can tell, I think it's a fair call.

I mean, look, I think we should all be content to let them share credit for this major accomplishment in Medicaid expansion.

Certainly as someone who used to work in the legislature, I will say it takes that enactment of legislation to make something like this happen.

But it's hard for me be to believe that if we had had a different governor after 2016 or a different governor after 2020, that this would've happened in the way it did and so I do think he's due credit for his persistent, flexible, creative advocacy on it.

Yes, it's the legislature that enacts the laws, but again, in a alternative universe where we have a Governor McCrory or Governor Forest instead, you know, I'm not sure it happens in the way it did.

- Skye, there's Medicaid expansion and then there's medical debt being, I guess, extinguished at the state level using Medicaid dollars, part of this deal.

So what is Roy Cooper's legacy?

He didn't ring a big bell with Medicaid expansion, but he was always there ringing the small bell in conversations over each and every budget.

- Yeah, I think that what I will commend him for is that he could work Medicaid expansion into pretty much any sentence.

It was something, subject, verb, Medicaid expansion.

And he did a good job of that.

And I think the medical debt piece was very, very popular amongst all crowds.

So both of those are major accomplishments.

- I mean, it's a subsidy for rural hospitals more than it's really extinguishing debt.

- Totally.

- You're just paying the hospitals and they're not chasing ordinary folks anymore for bills.

To your point about possibly rolling back Medicaid coverage to the federal level, this expansion in North Carolina, I can't imagine it's even old enough or mature enough as a federally watched program to find waste inefficiency and incompetence in it.

It's less than a year old.

- I don't know that we would talk about waste or incompetency.

It would be everything to do with trying and we're hearing this at the national level right now, whether it comes to fruition is probably anybody's guess at this point, is just generally cutting back on government spending regardless of waste and inefficiencies and something like that, if republicans in Washington, DC, want to really crank down on the budget and spending, you could see something like this rolling that back to 60 or 70% from the feds instead of 90 and that's gonna put states like North Carolina on the hook for the remainder.

- Colin, if it goes down below 90, I think the entire state law is at risk, if I understand the bill correctly.

- Yeah, I think legislators would have to go back in there and have probably what would be a really big debate on can we afford to fund this?

Can we make up that gap?

Because the way the law is structured, this is very much contingent on the status quo in DC, kind of continuing.

And as Nick said, that's somewhat up in the air under the new regime in DC.

- North Carolina's Supreme Court says, insurance companies should be covering restaurants, financial losses due to Covid and Covid restrictions of just a few years ago.

The definition of the term direct physical loss was what was argued before the justices.

Insurance companies, Skye, have successfully argued, you're a lawyer, in other states, that physical losses are like roof damage, hail damage, fire, flood, but restaurants say viruses and infection cause physical loss.

If insurance policies included exemptions from viral pandemic, the insurer would not be obligated to pay back the restaurant.

So, jump through a loophole, you get funded for virus.

I don't think anybody, last time we saw a virus do this was the pandemic of 1918.

So how does this court case, how does this unfold?

Is this trying to find a loophole to hold the insurance companies liable or were the insurance companies being shady?

- Yeah, what's interesting is that the insurance companies, they write their policies, so they try to make sure that they've got in there what they're not gonna be liable for.

And these policies that these restaurants had were all risk policies, which means we're covering everything unless we are exempting something.

And that was not exempted and what was really interesting about the Supreme Court case was that they had sort of a sister case where there was a clothing store, Cato, if you had one.

Cato brought a case for the same reason, but they had a virus exemption in there.

So it wasn't like, hey, it's unheard of to have a virus exemption, it was in.

A different insurer's policy.

- Nick, this battle in the private sector gets to the Supreme Court, policy also directed how businesses could operate and there's also been some scrutiny of our state government policy.

So how does this balance out, suing the insurance company?

There's been other lawsuits against the Cooper administration running Covid.

How much farther does this go into possibly the next decade before we settle this Covid pandemic?

- There's still a lot, and there's still, there's a couple of bar associations across the state, not legal bar, restaurant bar, kind of associations across the state that are actively in litigation with Cooper.

Stein will of course take those over when he's in the governor's mansion because a lot of this was coming down from the top in this case of Governor Roy Cooper.

But as Scott noted, I guess if you've got the policy and it's not explicitly stated that this is not something we cover, then you go after your insurance company and ask for the money back.

And in this case, it looks like the state Supreme Court's on the side of these small businesses over their insurance carriers, I should say.

- Colin, at the time, I do believe state leaders were doing what they thought might be best for the citizens and the best policy.

But how will history weigh in all of these restrictions and closures and insurance matters regarding businesses and schools and the like?

- Yeah, I think that's sort of remains to be seen.

We're still in I think the phase where I think the general public has tried to like repress their memories of 2020 to some extent.

So I think maybe there's a little bit longer runways before, you know, we really have sort of the definitive historical view on were all these shutdowns necessary?

Did they actually help?

Did they hurt more than they helped?

You know, it's really hard to kind of assess that at this stage.

But I do think it's something that, you know, we probably have to grapple with.

There may be another pandemic at some point.

There may other reasons why government may be involved in what schools, businesses, et cetera can do.

And what is the role going forward?

I don't know that we've really had that discussion that deeply.

- Astrid, let's look at the legal ramifications of this.

In other states, the insurance companies have won and not had a viral exemption.

So now it looks like every state has a different opinion.

And I did read an article that says, hey, when multiple states have different conclusions, it's ripe for a US Supreme Court intervention.

- That's right.

And I'm not a lawyer, so I'm not gonna prognosticate on how this goes, but I do think this, you know, look at the broader context here, and in light of recent events, we should all be very careful how we talk about this, but you look at the broader context of insurance companies with, you know, this happening, you know, insurers not wanting to pay their Covid claims in this case.

You've got homeowners insurance companies defecting or wanting to jack up rates by 40 percent, and of course, we've got health insurance.

And so this is a very sort of fraught and poignant political debate right now.

And so I think at some point it's probably gonna have to be resolved in Washington or at at the federal level, especially when you have some states doing one thing and some states doing another thing.

- And there's like, you know, business disruption issues involving insurance for Western North Carolina right now.

I mean there's the places that flooded and are trying to figure out whether their insurance covers flooding, but there's also a lot of businesses that got shut down because the water system was down, tourists weren't coming.

And does insurance help them with that?

I think that could get litigated, too.

- That's exactly right.

- That's a good point.

- Sky, you're down in Raleigh every day and you track these legislators.

At what point, does the private insurance industry and the public policy makers, do they have to come together and sit down?

Because you've got mountain insurers who never offered flood insurance, now you've got viral exemptions.

I mean, it seems like we're going down the path where there'll be a fire insurance policy that doesn't cover smoke damage and it just gets to be more and more exclusionary.

How does policy making, public subsidy and private enterprise mingle when it comes to insuring us?

- I think that that is something that they may take up and it can come to a head, but at some point, you have to look at the insurers and say, you write the policy, so you make those decisions, you can exclude whatever you want.

It's not gonna be something that I think the public is gonna be on the insurer's side about.

So it's not going to be very positive if you were to do, you know, some piece of legislation to help the insurance industry.

- And, Nick, we have, Joe Stewart's on our show as the political analyst.

He works in that insurance industry in his real job and he says insurance companies just aren't making the profits people think they make, particularly on liability coverage.

It's a complex issue.

You could probably read on it all over the holidays, if you want.

Well, a new report is out from an education nonprofit group.

It says North Carolina spent $11,777 per student in 2022, which was the year that covers the, you know, latest data they had.

Now, that sounds, that's a large number, but it makes North Carolina 48th of 50 states in per pupil funding level and 49th in funding effort, which compares GDP growth with the level of educational investment.

It's a group called the Education Law Center, releasing this report, gave the state an F for its funding level, but did give the state, Asher, a B grade for directing funds toward lower income counties where poverty's higher.

The national average among states is over $16,000 per student now, so these nonprofits have a reason to do this.

- Sure, and of course, this is not exactly news.

If we were taping this show one year ago, we could have had said the exact same thing because one year ago, North Carolina was also 48th in this particular ranking and for most of the last decade, North Carolina's been near the bottom of the barrel in per pupil spending after climbing up to somewhere in the middle of the pack during the 1990s and 2000s.

We should point out, per pupil spending is only one metric, right?

There are many factors that evidence shows are important for educational outcomes.

Leadership at the school level matters.

Family environment, home environment matters.

Socioemotional skills, cognitive abilities, all of these things matter for student outcomes, but there's a pretty clear and consistent body of evidence that shows that per pupil spending, if you look at broader educational attainment, things like graduation rates, if you look at life outcomes, like earning potential as adults, that it matters and that's supported by a lot of studies in a lot of states and a lot of countries and so the fact that we're still at the bottom matters to those students, to parents of those students.

Like me, I've got kids in our states public schools.

It matters to businesses in the state and instead of working to address that, of course we have to mention that the General Assembly is giving hundreds of millions of dollars to private vouchers instead and the studies have shown that whatever we think about those from our own values, that those disproportionately benefit families that sort of need the help the least, unlike some of the spending that goes to public schools and so, yes, we're kind of used to this news coming out with reports like this, but it does feel, you know, especially poignant coming out just a couple of weeks after 400 plus million more dollars for private vouchers gets enacted.

- Skye, with public education, it takes a lot of money.

Republicans will say we have increased education spending every single year and that is a factual statement and that's true and now they're still 48th, 49th, they're getting Fs and Bs on these reports and that gets the headlines.

How do Republicans get over the hump rather than, if they don't wanna just dump a lot of cash into public education?

- Yeah, I think that's a policy question.

So you change the policies, you change what's happening at the school level, not throw more money at it.

I don't know what the solution here is, but I would guess that we could spend way more and still kind of have the same outcomes.

You have to look at those outcomes that the students are having and if they're poor, then maybe there is a new solution and that's a policy related solution, not an appropriation one.

- Nick, it does say very partisan, you know, if the schools aren't working publicly, we'll fund private, but then private stars the public and I've never seen anyone really switch their mind on this topic of vouchers versus increased school funding, especially with nonprofits going, public schools are 48th.

- I mean, you can chew and walk gum at the same time and I think that's kind of what we've seen from the legislature, as you noted, contrary to public media perception and what people will tell you, Republicans have- - Continually, as you noted, funded more money for public schools.

If we're talking about the past, governor Roy Cooper has vetoed budget after budget that dealt with additional school funding.

So I think you can do both.

And the question I always ask Kelly is, well then how much more, if it's 11,000 right now, does it need to be 20,000, 30,000?

At what point do we cross the threshold where we're actually seeing results?

- Running short on time.

Colin, I wanna talk about the Lumbee recognition bill.

So we'll leave you off of the education debate and get to that next time you're on.

I'm sure we'll talk about it.

But the US House has passed a bill that could authorize federal recognition of the Lumbee tribe.

The vote was 311 to 96 with North Carolina's delegation split a bit on its support, but if recognized, the Lumbee would qualify for federal benefits and its territories would remain subject to North Carolina law.

Representative Chuck Edwards out of Western North Carolina, representative Virginia Fox opposed the bill.

Rep Edwards says he opposes the bill because it bypasses the US Department of Interior processes for recognizing Native American tribes.

He wants to Lumbee to go that route instead.

But he also represents areas that the Cherokee call home, as I saw it written.

We're under two minutes, so I did not wanna miss this.

This is a big deal potentially, 'cause Trump and Vance campaigned down around Robinson County.

- Yeah and Robinson County, the Lumbee shift towards the Republican party over the past decade I think has been really helpful to Republican's prospects in this state politically.

So there's, you know, a desire to make good on that promise, but at the same time you have this, you know, interplay between these different tribes over the access to resources that federal recognition gives you.

Cherokee obviously vehemently opposed to the Lumbee having this recognition.

And there's definitely this fight politically just between these two organizations.

- Asher is this when Trump gets involved in to make it happen?

- We'll see, I wish I were more optimistic that this gets through the Senate in the waning days.

I'm not as optimistic just because that's been the sticking point in previous years.

I dealt with this when I was working in Congress, you know, 10 years ago, 15 years ago.

Same sort of dynamic.

So Collin's right, the political dynamics have changed.

Maybe it gets over the hump this time.

Hope dawns eternal.

I'm not so optimistic.

- Sky, last word on the Lumbee tribe recognition.

- Yeah, just like Asher said, this has been going on since I think 1888 and it hasn't happened yet.

So I am cautiously optimistic, but the Senate is a large, large hurdle.

- Nick, do the Republicans owe the Lumbee this?

They've spent a lot of time down there.

- I don't know if it's the Republicans that owe them anything.

I think it's generally for most part is what we saw up in DC it's pretty bipartisan.

And from the Senate standpoint, both Senators Tillis and Budd are super optimistic.

- Thank you folks.

We're almost out of time.

Email me your thoughts StateLines@pbsnc.org.

We hope to see you next time, bye-bye.

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