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Senate race.

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[upbeat orchestral music] ♪ - Welcome back to "State Lines."

I'm Kelly McCullen.

Joining me today for a grand old time of half- hour political analysis, Joe Stewart to my right.

Good friend.

Hey, Joe, how's it going?

- Good to see you, Kelly.

- You guys are fired up off-camera here.

How about retired North Carolina Supreme Court Associate Justice Bob Orr sitting in seat two.

Bob, good to see you.

Have you been on since the new year?

If not, happy new year.

- Yes, first time.

- All right, Dawn Vaughan of "The News & Observer" is here, fresh from a trip to Rockingham County, covering that Paige Burger race.

And Pat Ryan.

- Good to see you, Kelly.

- Ryan, public relations, and we pin everything on Pat.

He's going to speak for all Republicans this month.

Well, I need Dawn to answer some questions about early voting.

Let's get started.

A lot to talk about.

Primary voters, you can cast your final ballots.

Elections next week will be primary day.

Early voting wrapping up this weekend.

Determine those candidates for the November election.

This is local, legislative, congressional races.

Don't forget the U.S.

Senate race.

Political science professor Dr.

Mike Bitzer reports on a blog.

The 2026 early voting turnout is exceeding 2022's midterms.

That's not a surprise, but 2024's performance for most of the early voting period for when he's measured.

Turnout does appear to favor Democratic primary voters.

That includes independents.

You can vote in any primary you want if you're unaffiliated, I guess.

Republican turnout statistically down from 2024.

But, Dawn, there's no Donald Trump to get Republicans as excited as they might otherwise be.

So we got a lot to talk about race-wise.

With the political races, let's talk about early voting.

Has it been smooth?

Has it been effective?

Is it continuing to be popular?

- It seems to be.

I mean, it gives people, you know, these two weeks, you've got several days to vote or go to the primary.

You also have to think that on election day that it's a limited number of people that are voting, but also in North Carolina, if you're unaffiliated, you can choose a nonpartisan ballot, a Republican ballot, or a Democratic ballot.

So people who are motivated to vote against someone, maybe that's why Democrats who are mad at everything going on in Washington are incentivized to vote.

But also, there are so many counties with primaries and sheriff's races, which is a big deal.

You know, other county races.

Wake County has, you know, district attorney primary.

So it's not just these big-ticket races, but it's a mix of local and state and federal that's bringing people out.

- Yeah, that's a good point.

There are a lot of primaries, especially at the state legislative level this year, for one.

But I just want to say that I am so proud of all these North Carolinians under such intense pressures, like voter ID, that everybody said would not be able to result in anybody going out to vote.

For years and years, being able to find a way to get out to the polls and set turnout records, it is just really an exercise in shock on my part.

But look, it's a bad environment for Republicans, just like any midterm election is for the party in the White House.

Not a surprise that Democratic turnout numbers are up, Republican turnout numbers are down.

This is just sort of how it goes for midterm elections, in my opinion.

- Joe, are we sleeping on some of these local races?

This is one area where the local paper in town, small circulation can be immensely powerful.

Shows like ours that are statewide, regional, don't even mention national, they can't get down in those weeds.

But it's exciting down there.

Sheriff's races everywhere, and those are great.

- Yeah, early voting has proven to be very customer-friendly.

I mean, people have increasingly chosen to vote early, I think in large part because of the convenience.

For those running campaigns, sometimes early voting is a great opportunity to see if you've gotten out your voters, and so you know what the strategy needs to be for election day, and it helps you get out your voters in anticipation that election day could be rainy or some other thing that would discourage turnout.

In the short-term history of North Carolina's early voting experience, it used to be, just in gross general terms, that early voting favored Democrats and that election day favored Republicans.

But I think we're finding it's a greater blend of Democrat and Republican voters that are turning out in the early segment, and the fact that more people are turning out is probably as much as anything a reflection of all of these local races, where voters feel they really care about who their sheriff is, they're gonna turn out.

- You mean people are people, they like good convenience and early options.

Would sheriff's races, in this case, county commission races, be what's driving turnout, or would it be Whatley, Don Brown, Michelle Morrow Cooper that raised Congress?

What would get you excited to vote in the midterm?

- Well, I think to some extent, as Pat alluded to, it is oftentimes a voter's chance to reflect on what they feel the shape or direction of the country is from a national perspective, whether they feel the party in control of the White House is doing what they wanna do, and their vote is a reflection of either their support of or opposition to that sense.

But I always feel, in my experience working in running campaigns, people have a lot more of an exact sense of what the value proposition of certain people serving in local offices, they kinda know what a senator does and what a president does, but they really know what a sheriff does and they really know what a local county commissioner does.

- Judge Orr, I will say at the state level, last few weeks, the talk's been about upgrading a huge database for the state board of elections, make it user-friendly for both elections boards statewide and for ordinary voters to do their own research.

I've not heard of many problems with early voting, other than there was a fight over opening new precincts and college campuses.

What's your take?

Have you had a few elections and probably presided over a couple of disputes?

- Well, the truth is, early voting's a fairly recent phenomenon in North Carolina.

Most of my life, the only early voting was absentee ballot with excuse, you know, like when I was in the military.

And so, I think if you're encouraging people to vote, if that's part of your overall policy to get people out, you wanna have early voting.

And as North Carolina's population has expanded so rapidly into such huge numbers, I mean, just think of the mess if you only had voting on election day.

I mean, if everybody had to come out on the day.

So, it helps the election system, which certainly needs to be modernized, and I applaud the auditor for that effort.

But early voting is a critical component now of the North Carolina election system and should be expanded and continued to make availability.

- It's convenient.

- Yeah.

- I think Republicans embrace it, right?

You mentioned, I think in 2020, there was a lot of concern, especially on Republicans, about whether we can trust the early vote, what have you.

Since then, I think wisely, a lot of Republican officials, including, I think, up to the White House, have said, "You'll need to get out and vote early "because we need to bank those votes "and we're gonna lose otherwise."

- Did Donald Trump make early voting cool for Republicans by telling people to early vote?

Is that really what, is that one thing Trump did?

- I think he both made it, I think first he made it uncool, then he made it cool again.

- You guys wanna talk about process or talk about these races?

Which ones were exciting to you?

- Yes.

- Okay.

The most watched state legislative race in North Carolina.

Okay, this is subjective.

It has to be that Republican primary featuring Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger against longtime Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page.

Berger has President Trump's endorsement, yet President Trump was also cordial to the Page campaign while endorsing Phil Berger.

Polling seems to show this could be a very close race, at least what polls have been done recently.

The Berger's campaign says Democratic groups are investing to influence the primary against him.

Page's campaign's threatening legal action against the Berger campaign happened late this week over the content of campaign advertising.

Pat Ryan, in full disclosure, Phil Berger's your old boss, but we'll kick this segment off to you.

- Great.

- I'm not expecting a Senate President Pro Tem to be fighting like this in a Republican primary.

- First of all, I think you've seen throughout history a lot of long-serving, long-tenured elected leaders, whether in Congress or in state houses, face tough primary challenges.

I don't think it's unusual.

Sam Page has been in office in Rockingham County for 30 years.

He's a formidable opponent under any circumstances against anybody.

It's a knife fight out there.

I don't know what the results are gonna be on Tuesday.

I think you can flip a coin.

But I do know that I don't think it's objective to say that this is probably the most impactful primary at a North Carolina policy level, at least in a generation.

If you look around North Carolina, what you see, Phil Berger has had a hand in for the last 15 years, whether you like it or not.

He didn't do all of it.

There's a lot of help.

There's a lot of support in the legislature.

But he's been the quarterback for 15 years.

What I see is a North Carolina among the top with a handful of other states in the country.

And workforce and growth and economy, Berger didn't do it alone, but he, like I said, was the quarterback.

So the state's future trajectory on policy will in some ways be determined by the result of this primary.

It's a big deal.

- Well, I wrote two big stories about the Berger-Page race that are at news, in the News & Observer now, on the website, it'll be in print too.

And my lead for one of the stories is, if you are one of the 26,000 registered Republicans in Rockingham County, this is a story for you.

If you are one of the 11 million people living in North Carolina, this is also a story for you.

And statewide, it's such a big deal because Berger has been in control for so long.

And in Rockingham County and Guilford County, it's a difference.

And so I talked to a lot of voters out there and to them, it's not Senate Leader Berger, it's Phil, you know, it's not Sheriff Page, it's Sam, and they know them and they don't necessarily dislike both of them 'cause they voted for both Page and they voted for Berger in the same elections all these years.

And again, Trump endorsed Berger, but then he also complimented Page.

So that's not as much of a factor.

It'd be different if Trump, you know, spoke ill of one of them.

- Have these campaigns done a good job targeting each other for being negative, bad for Rockingham County, bad for Guilford County in Phil Berger's case?

Did they do a good job or are voters going knock it off?

- They definitely targeted each other, that's for sure.

And there was one person that I saw, you know, come up to Sheriff Page and say, I got 11 mailers today.

And he said, seven were, you know, for Berger and then also, you know, against Page.

There was a Page one, there's House Member Reese Pearl has a primary, he's the incumbent.

There are other races on the ballot and people don't necessarily like it.

I've said, would you describe this as contentious?

You know, and they're like, oh, it's very contentious.

And some people don't like how it's gotten.

They've really kind of already made up their minds because they know them.

Some are like, you know, I really like Sheriff Page.

I'm friends with Sheriff Page, but I'm not mad at Senator Berger or the job he's doing.

So it's really gonna come down to maybe when they actually like have their ballot and think, you know, do you want Berger to leave and have Page in there?

Or are you happy enough with him and you like Page, but this just isn't the time.

Someone told me it's just not the time.

- All right, Bob, modern politics.

We're not worried about a Democrat running this race in November, I wouldn't think.

So now it's primary battles and it's a conservative candidate against, is it a more conservative candidate?

What do you make of the intra-party battles?

Democrats shut out of deciding who would be their representative, even if they could vote in a losing effort.

- Yeah, whoever wins the primary will be the next state senator from that district.

It seems to me it's surprising to have as established a challenger as Sheriff Page is.

Normally somebody who's gonna take on the Phil Bergers of the world is, you know, kind of an outsider, a flyer, who's got his or her dandruff up over the race.

But this is kind of a visceral race.

I don't think anybody's really thinking about, well, policy-wise, you know, Berger's over here, Page is over here, they're both very conservative, they're both supporters of Trump.

So I think it boils down to two things.

You know, who's upset more with Phil Berger or with Sam Page, and what are the unaffiliated going to do?

And I haven't looked at those numbers, maybe y'all have, but in a tight race, and Pat was saying it's gonna be a tight race, as I think most everybody believes, how those unaffiliated choose which party primary they vote in could be the determinative factor.

And that's a little bit of a wild card, particularly when you drop down into Guilford and out of Rockingham.

- This goes back to the casino that would have been approved for Rockingham County.

That's what I've always read, been told, brought Sam Page to say, I'll come to Raleigh and I'll try to defeat Phil Berger.

Is that glow fading in Rockingham County, or is it still hot even to this day, though the casino failed two cycles ago in the budget?

- It just seemed that this election is about, more about the local issues and the impact of this.

Senator Berger, who has a son on the County Commission and a son on the Supreme Court.

I mean, there's some sense that the family has been involved in politics, and sometimes voters are like, well, wait a minute, why are so many people from your family involved in politics?

Sam Page, again, a long time elected official in that county, who had some sense of opposition to the proposal that there be a casino, thought about challenging Berger before, decided to try a run for Lieutenant Governor that failed.

But I would suspect at the end of the day that Senator Berger has a competitive advantage in this regard.

He is able to make a case that as pro tem in the North Carolina Senate, his ability to continue to provide for the constituents of that district is far greater.

If Sam Page wins, he will be a freshman member of the State Senate and not able to do as much.

And so if it is about local issues, I think to some extent it still is a benefit to Senator Berger to be able to say, I will have the ability to deliver for my constituents.

- There are other races out there, state legislators, elected judges, facing primary challengers.

And while most legislative districts are safe for the incumbent, that primary we're talking about is proving to be most important.

Just finishing up chatting about the Berger-Page race in that Republican majority district, State Appeals Court Judge John Errawood, a Democrat, will face off against either Republican Senator Matt Smith or Michael Byrne at the State House.

You have Charlotte Representative and Democrat Carla Cunningham facing a Governor Josh Stein endorsed challenger.

Got Michael Ray out there floating around, wants his job back in Eastern North Carolina for the House.

Joe, let's talk about other legislative races.

Too many for me to tell you what to talk about.

What has your attention?

- Well, we did see far many more Republican incumbents face a challenge from within their own party, and that is probably at least in part a reflection of the fact the way the legislative districts are drawn, because the certainty of electing a candidate of one party or the other is greater in the general election.

It makes it more desirable for people to jump in into the primary, thinking that they'll win in the fall if they win in the primary.

And there's not quite my perspective here, not quite the kind of party discipline.

On either side, there has been historically about not challenging an incumbent just because you want to.

I mean, if there had been malfeasance or misconduct many times, that would have been a primary challenge.

But now I think it's just the blood sport of wanting to get on the ballot so you can go to Raleigh.

But I think that there is disquiet within both parties.

There is a challenge within both parties in terms of people at the farther end of the spectrum and folks that might be considered more the moderate element of the parties.

And that's really what's playing out in these primaries.

For Democrats, it's challenges from the left of people that are already pretty far to the left.

And I think on the Republican side, not to say anyone's opportunistic in politics, but the sense that in all likelihood, the General Assembly will retain a Republican majority.

Getting elected in a primary as a Republican, even if it's taken out an incumbent, which seems to be not something that historically parties have wanted candidates to do, still means you get to go to Raleigh and get some stuff done because you'll be in the majority party.

- Pat, it is way more open out there.

The Democratic Party and Josh Stein getting involved in at least one endorsement.

The party's behind a few, making it clear they want some incumbents gone, some to stay.

It is a different dynamic right now.

- Yeah, so I think there are sort of two separate dynamics playing out.

And I'll try to explain this as briefly as I can.

On the Democratic side, for years, it's been if the Democrats in the legislature signed with Republicans on a key issue, even though their voters back home may like it, even though it may benefit that particular legislator or what have you, that person earns a rebuke from the governor and a primary challenge backed by the governor.

Talk about whether that's a good or bad way to do politics, but that's how it works on the Democratic side.

I think on the Republican side, you know, nobody here will disagree with this, I don't think.

There has just been a lot of personal animosity at the legislature between the chambers and sometimes between individual members.

That happens.

You know, people get mad at each other in politics, you know, and there's probably a cycle to it.

Right now, I think there's just sort of high tension at the legislative building.

It's been that way for a little bit.

There's no formally adopted budget, right?

I think some of these primaries on the Republican side are more of a manifestation of that sort of, you know, unhealthy personal dynamic that's just playing out right now and hopefully will resolve itself in the relatively near future.

I think there's some of that going into it on the Republican side.

- I mean, just to go back briefly to Berger and Page, when I was talking to Senator Berger this week, one of the reasons he thought that people should vote for him instead of Sheriff Page is he said, "Page supports the Democratic Governor Stein's "endorsed budget."

And I was like, he didn't mean Stein's budget proposal.

He meant the House Republicans' budget.

So that inner chamber fighting is part of all of this.

And I think with, you know, Democrats, 'cause they're competitive Democratic primaries, they're like, "Do you think the Democratic voters, "do you think the incumbent Democrat "is fighting hard enough for Democrats?

"And if not, then they'll want someone else."

And then Republicans could be the, "Well, they wanna vote Republican, "but they don't like Washington or whatever's going on, "and they want somebody different."

And so they're mad within their party for whatever reason.

- But Bob, parties are putting their thumb on the scale.

Michael Whatley's got a 30-point lead in his US Senate race over Don Brown at this point, and a lot more over Michelle Morrow, and that's Trump saying, "I want Michael Whatley to represent North Carolina."

That's not North Carolina is necessarily saying up front, "We want Michael Whatley to come home."

That's just one example, but go back to Carla Cunningham, Michael Ray.

- Yeah, well, in that situation, on the legislative side, I think the only real power the Democrats have to block any legislation by the Republican majorities in both houses is the governor's veto.

And so if you can't count on your Democrat legislators sticking with the governor on at least those specific votes, then I think you're gonna start seeing fractions break out.

- I thought you were a separation of powers guy, Bob.

(laughing) - The veto, you have a veto power, you have a legislative power, and the governor, except in redistricting cases, can veto legislation that he or she doesn't like.

But the factions are those who are willing to support the governor on a veto override vote.

But I gotta say, there's one Court of Appeals primary, nobody talks about that.

Nobody even knows it's happening except a couple of thousand people.

But it is a case where you have a slate selected by sort of the party leaders on the judicial side, and they've picked a candidate.

And then out of the woodwork comes Mike Smith to challenge it.

- Bob, somebody cares about giving a platform.

Every year, good old Kelly here does his interviews with Andrea, our producer, will go out there and will interview your judicial candidates to let people have a shot at meeting them.

Democrat, Republican, and unaffiliated.

- Public service.

- You can count on us, folks.

- Keep it, I always count on PBS.

- There you go, that's the answer.

Well, we're gonna stay with you, Bob.

Let's talk about Eastern North Carolina.

Those congressional districts out there were affected by late 2025 redistricting.

State Republicans just shifted a few Republican voters over into Democratic Representative Don Davis' former district, then moved Don Davis out of his own district.

But Don Davis still seeking re-election as a Democrat.

Republican primary to challenge him, wide open.

Five candidates seeking the nomination.

Emerson Polling joined up with some local media in Raleigh.

They did a poll.

Lori Buckout was leading Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck.

Speaking of county sheriffs being popular, she ran before he was, what, two to four points behind as Carteret County Sheriff.

Once again, here comes the sheriff.

Bob, what do you think of the house race?

- Well, it appears to be a primary in which the Republican candidates have not seen President Trump's polling numbers and approval ratings.

I think there's a news desert in Eastern North Carolina.

80% in that Emerson Poll said that they thought tariffs were helping the economy, which is contrary to everything I've heard.

But each of the candidates, particularly the leading ones, are trying to outdo the other in how close they are to Trump and how much they'll support his agenda.

I think, again, it will be interesting to see what unaffiliated voters do if they choose the Republican ballot for the primary and how that's going to affect it.

But you assume the sheriff and Lori Buckout or the leaders in it, but then one third or over one third were undecided.

- And their state senator, Bobby Hennig, and is Shrimpgate gonna help him?

I mean, I feel like a lot of primaries are what happens on the ground.

And are they going to every polling site?

Are they connecting with voters, have people met them, versus people are gonna vote just because someone else endorsed them, who they like?

- Yeah, look, I think all five candidates have raised at least six figures.

There's some level of viability for each of them.

And in a Republican primary, being perceived as close to the president is probably the greatest advantage one can have.

So it's not surprising that they would be pursuing that advantage themselves, just as in the state legislature, Democrats would not want to get sideways with the governor.

- Joe, somebody might knock Bob's comment saying, I believe it's a news desert in eastern North Carolina.

I will say statistically, I do believe, 'cause there's a lot of non-profits study this.

Local papers there have struggled.

They are hanging in there doing a great job, but it is technically a news desert geographically.

We need more newspapers, local radio out there.

Henry Hinton does a great job with his talk show, but he got a little opinion there in the first thing in the morning.

But this congressional race with Don Davis, is Don Davis got a little Teflon effect to him compared to the people running to the right of him?

Jesse Helms somehow was not popular and somehow won.

- Davis has a strong track record of being able to get crossover voters in that part of the state.

Now the district lines have been redrawn to make it less favorable to a Democrat, but probably with the combination of it being something of a favorable year for Democrats because of the historical sense of the party out of control of the White House, get some advantage.

But I think here we'll see that it's gonna be a tough race head to head.

But again, everything that you do and say about eastern North Carolina, I always have to remind people, "The Lost Colony," which is the great outdoor dramatic performance in Manteo, North Carolina, is a great story.

The first English settlers on Roanoke Island.

So covering it this fall- - You wouldn't be volunteering or all this.

- You may happen to be on the board for "The Lost Colony," and it just happens it's in the first district.

- I got a minute left.

I wanted to get to Michael Whatley, Roy Cooper.

Now, Whatley's gotta win his primary.

He's up 30%, but what, 30% don't know who they wanna vote for or undecided.

Very quickly, just what do you make of Whatley now being on the stump with Trump in Fort Bragg, G20 coming to Asheville, now they're talking about selling stocks.

Congress should not own stocks or having them blind trust.

Is Whatley starting to get a pulse there against Roy Cooper?

Cooper's known.

- You know, it reminds me of the Terry Sanford, Jim Roy Hill Senate race 40 years ago.

Neither candidate is really gonna be that, that fire up the election base to any great extent.

They're going to, you know, Whatley's gotta tie his vote to Trump, and it'll either float in November or it's gonna sink really hard.

- Dawn, last word, about 20 seconds.

I wish we could talk to all you guys, but we can't.

- I think Bob has it right.

It's gonna be like national politics is gonna decide the US Senate race.

- Whatley, is he going up?

Is his name getting out there now?

- For sure, but look, it's 2026.

It's gonna be a tough climate.

It's an uphill climb.

I don't think anybody would say otherwise.

- Three seconds, you get the last word.

- Yeah, it's a race against someone with a long track record and no track record.

We'll see what the voters want.

- Almost got through it.

Thank you folks for watching.

Email me at statelines@pbsnc.org.

We'll read your email.

I'm Kelly McCullen, See you next time.

♪ - Funding for "State Lines" is made possible in part by - Across North Carolina, strong communities begin at home.

The North Carolina Realtors represent more than 55,000 professionals statewide focused on expanding housing attainability for all.

- Quality public television is made possible through the financial contributions of viewers like you who invite you to join them in supporting PBSNC.